The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has released its 2026 economic outlook, projecting that Nigeria's GDP will grow by 5.5% this year. This is a significant improvement from the 3.4% recorded in 2025, and it creates compelling opportunities for both domestic and international investors.
But what is driving this growth, and what does it mean for you?
What Is Driving the Growth?
Oil sector recovery: Nigeria's oil production is expected to stabilize at 1.8 million barrels per day. Improved security in the Niger Delta and new investments in offshore production are helping. The Dangote Refinery, now operating at increased capacity, is reducing fuel import dependency and improving the trade balance.
Non-oil export expansion: Non-oil exports reached a record $6.1 billion in 2025. Agricultural products, solid minerals, and manufactured goods are leading the charge. The government's export diversification initiatives are bearing fruit.
Structural reforms: The removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates, while initially painful, have created a more transparent and investor-friendly economic environment. These reforms are attracting renewed interest from international financial institutions and foreign direct investors.
Where Are the Opportunities?
Infrastructure: The government's focus on transportation, energy, and digital infrastructure creates opportunities in construction, engineering, and technology sectors.
Agriculture: With 84 million hectares of arable land and growing export demand, agribusiness remains a high-potential sector.
Manufacturing: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) positions Nigeria as a manufacturing hub for the 1.4 billion-person African market.
Financial services: Growing middle class and digital adoption are driving demand for banking, insurance, and fintech services.
What Should You Watch Out For?
The 5.5% projection assumes continued policy stability and no major external shocks. Currency volatility remains a concern, and infrastructure gaps continue to add costs for businesses operating in Nigeria.
Investors should verify specific incentive eligibility for their sector, understand local content requirements, and assess regulatory stability at both state and federal levels.
How I-STRATA Can Help
Navigating Nigeria's investment landscape requires local expertise and trusted partnerships. We provide market entry strategy, regulatory navigation, partner identification, and ongoing support throughout your investment journey.
Ready to explore Nigeria's growth story? Schedule a strategy call with our team today.
Sources: Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), CNBC Africa, January 2026