The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Vessel traffic through the world's most critical energy chokepoint has fallen by approximately 70 per cent since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on 1 March 2026. Brent crude surged 13 per cent in a single session. Qatar has halted LNG production. Saudi Aramco has shut down one of its largest refineries. And in Lagos, the Dangote Refinery has already raised petrol prices by ₦100 per litre.
For anyone running a business that touches more than one country, the question is no longer whether this conflict will affect you. It already has. The question is what you do about it in the next 72 hours.
What Happened
On 1 March 2026, the United States and Israel launched a combined military operation against Iran, targeting its leadership, nuclear programme, ballistic missile infrastructure, and air defences. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was confirmed dead. Iran retaliated with drone strikes on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery — one of the kingdom's largest, with a capacity exceeding 500,000 barrels per day — and on Qatar's LNG facilities, putting nearly one-fifth of global LNG supply at risk.
The US State Department closed embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after they were struck by drones, and urged American citizens to leave 14 countries immediately. War-risk insurance premiums for crude tankers transiting the Gulf have risen from approximately $250,000 to over $400,000. Several major shipping lines have suspended Gulf transit entirely.
The Numbers That Matter
The Strait of Hormuz is not just another shipping lane. It carries 15 per cent of global seaborne crude oil, 20 per cent of global LNG shipments, and one-third of the world's most widely used fertiliser. When it closes, the effects cascade across every supply chain that touches energy, agriculture, or manufactured goods.
| Indicator | Before Strikes | Current | Worst-Case Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude ($/barrel) | $72.80 | $77.53 (+6.4%) | $100–$120 (JPMorgan) |
| Hormuz Vessel Traffic | Normal | Down ~70% | Full closure possible |
| Tanker Insurance Premium | ~$250,000 | $400,000+ | Uninsurable |
| Qatar LNG Output | Operational | Halted | Weeks to restore |
| Dangote PMS Price (₦/litre) | ₦774 | ₦874 (+₦100) | Further increases likely |
| European Gas Prices | ~$33/MWh | Rising | $100/MWh (Citi, 3-month closure) |
Sources: Reuters, The Guardian, Guardian Nigeria, Oxford Economics, CNBC Africa. Data as of 3 March 2026.
Why Nigeria Is Caught in the Middle
Every geopolitical shock that moves oil prices puts Nigeria in an impossible position. Higher crude means more export revenue for a government that still depends on petroleum for the majority of its foreign exchange earnings. But it simultaneously means higher domestic fuel costs, higher transport costs, higher food prices, and accelerating inflation for 220 million people.
The Dangote Refinery's decision to suspend petrol loading at midnight on 2 March and raise its ex-depot price to ₦874 per litre is a direct consequence of this dynamic. Private depot owners across the country halted sales during the day over uncertainty about replacement costs. Under Nigeria's deregulated pricing regime, international volatility now feeds directly into what Nigerians pay at the pump — and what businesses pay for logistics, raw materials, and operations.
For foreign companies operating in Nigeria or considering market entry, this is not abstract macroeconomic commentary. It is a real-time cost shock that affects every line item in an operating budget, from generator diesel to staff transport allowances to import clearing charges.
The Wider Business Impact
The disruption extends well beyond oil prices. Businesses with supply chains that transit the Middle East face immediate rerouting decisions. The alternative to the Strait of Hormuz is the Cape of Good Hope — adding approximately two weeks and significant cost to any shipment between Asia and Europe or Africa. Insurance costs for remaining Gulf traffic are already prohibitive for many operators.
Currency markets are equally volatile. The US dollar has rallied sharply as investors seek safe-haven assets, putting pressure on emerging market currencies including the naira. For any business managing cross-border payments, procurement, or repatriation of earnings, the FX environment has become materially more difficult in the space of 48 hours.
Regulatory responses are diverging rapidly by country. Thailand has banned all petroleum exports. China is negotiating continued crude purchases from Iran even as other shipping halts. European governments are preparing emergency energy measures. Each jurisdiction is making different decisions, and businesses operating across borders need to track all of them simultaneously.
What Cross-Border Operators Should Do Now
This is not the time for a wait-and-see approach. The businesses that navigate geopolitical shocks successfully are those that act in the first 72 hours, not the first 72 days. Here is what matters most:
Audit your supply chain exposure immediately. Identify every input, shipment, or contract that touches the Gulf region, Middle Eastern suppliers, or routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Quantify the cost impact of a two-week rerouting delay and a 30 per cent increase in shipping insurance.
Lock in FX positions where possible. If you have upcoming cross-border payments, procurement orders, or capital transfers, the current volatility window is dangerous. Speak to your treasury team or FX provider about hedging options before the naira adjusts further.
Review your fuel and energy assumptions. If your Nigerian operations budget was built on ₦774 per litre PMS, it is already wrong. Model scenarios at ₦900, ₦1,000, and ₦1,200 per litre. Adjust logistics and operational cost projections accordingly.
Monitor regulatory responses in every jurisdiction you operate in. Export bans, price controls, emergency tariffs, and capital controls are all on the table when governments respond to energy shocks. What is legal and commercially viable today may not be tomorrow.
Communicate with your local partners and teams. If you have staff, contractors, or partners in affected regions — including the Gulf states, East Africa, or anywhere dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports — check in now. Operational continuity depends on people, not just spreadsheets.
The Bigger Picture
This crisis will pass. The Strait of Hormuz has been threatened before and global trade has always found a way through. But the pattern is clear: geopolitical shocks are becoming more frequent, more severe, and more interconnected. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy crisis. The Red Sea shipping disruptions of 2024. And now the Hormuz closure of 2026.
For businesses operating across borders — particularly those with exposure to Africa, the Middle East, or emerging markets — the lesson is not to predict the next crisis. It is to build the coordination infrastructure that allows you to respond to any crisis within hours, not weeks. That means having on-ground intelligence in the markets where you operate. It means having relationships with local regulators, logistics providers, and financial institutions that can be activated immediately. And it means having a single coordination point that can synthesise information across jurisdictions and translate it into actionable decisions.
This is precisely the operating model that I-STRATA was built to provide. If your business is exposed to the current disruption and you need help navigating the next 72 hours — or if this crisis has made you realise that your cross-border operations lack the coordination infrastructure they need — explore our Private Membership or request a consultation.
Sources: Reuters, The Guardian (UK), Guardian Nigeria, New African Magazine, CNBC Africa, Oxford Economics, Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, Janes Defence Intelligence. All data verified as of 3 March 2026.